Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
